Happy Oscar Sunday! This time last year, I was getting dressed up to watch the Academy Awards at the Academy Museum, but this year I’m celebrating the conclusion of awards season in a more relaxed fashion, though still slightly more exciting than just watching at home. My mom, who happens to be visiting Southern California this week, is treating me on my birthday weekend to a stay at the historic Biltmore Hotel, which was one of the early homes of the Oscars from 1930 to 1943. So it’s been nice seeing photographs of that Oscar history around the hotel ahead of tonight’s show. Which now brings me to my annual Oscars picks and predictions post. So as in years past, I’ll make predictions on which films will win the Academy Award in each category. And for the top eight categories (the four for acting, the two screenplay categories, Best Director, and of course, Best Picture), I’ll be including which of the nominees I’d pick for my own ballot.
Best Picture
First, my personal ranking of the nominees, from best to worst:
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- American Fiction
- Maestro
This is overall a very strong line-up of Best Picture nominees, probably the best we’ve had since the category expanded to more than 5 films, and possibly even among the very best in Academy Awards history. So this is a fairly rough ranking, as I went back and forth on placements for most of these movies. The only film that I didn’t really like is Maestro, which I was disappointed to find wasn’t as good as it looked like it’d be. On the other end of the spectrum, the two movies that really stayed with me throughout the year were Past Lives and Oppenheimer, both of which couldn’t be more different from each other. Ultimately it’s hard for me to deny the scope of Oppenheimer, and I believe the Academy is thinking the same thing, as evidenced by the film’s 13 nominations. So it should be a very good night for the team behind one of the biggest movies of the past year.
My Pick: Oppenheimer
My Prediction: Oppenheimer
Best Director
Nominees (in alphabetical order by movie):
- Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
This is another impressive set of nominees, even though I would’ve liked to see at least one more woman nominated alongside Justine Triet (such as Greta Gerwig for Barbie or Celine Song for Past Lives). It seems weird that Martin Scorsese still only has one Oscar, and in another year I really would’ve been rooting for him to win. But this is truly Christopher Nolan’s to lose. I’m not even a huge Nolan fan and have occasionally found him to be overrated, but Oppenheimer is such an achievement and I’m glad he’s finally getting some Oscar glory.
My Pick: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
My Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Actor
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
At the beginning of awards season, I assumed Bradley Cooper’s portrayal of Leonard Bernstein would be what voters would gravitate to as it checks many of the boxes of the types of performances that often win. Then earlier this year it seemed like the race was leaning more toward Paul Giamatti, the veteran actor in this category who’d only been nominated once before. But after winning at SAG and BAFTA, I think it’s safe to say the Oscar will go to first-time nominee Cillian Murphy, my favorite of this group. I can’t recall the last time my personal pick for Best Actor has gone on to win the Oscar, so this is an exciting outcome for me, as Murphy’s more restrained performance is the kind of work I’m more drawn to seeing on screen.
My Pick: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
My Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Best Actress
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Annette Bening, Nyad
- Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
The Best Actress category is usually the most interesting race to watch of the four acting categories, and that’s still the case this year. While the other three seem to be locked up, this one seems to be a little up in the air between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. But in the end, I think it will go to Gladstone, who also gave the kind of subtle work I like to see in a performance, which also makes her my personal pick here. Close behind her among my favorite performances of the year is Sandra Hüller, who could also be a dark horse to win, and I wouldn’t mind seeing her as a surprise winner.
My Pick: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
My Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
- Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Here’s the acting category where my personal pick differs from my prediction, though my actual favorite supporting actor performance of the year wasn’t even nominated here, and that’s Charles Melton’s devastating work in May December. To be honest, I wasn’t that impressed with what Robert Downey Jr. did in Oppenheimer though he was good in it, and I won’t be mad at seeing an Oscar in his hand considering his career and impact on the industry. But if it were up to me, my vote would go to Ryan Gosling’s singular performance as Ken in Barbie. At least we’ll get to see him bring the Kenergy on the Oscars stage when he performs “I’m Just Ken”.
My Pick: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
My Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- America Ferrera, Barbie
- Jodie Foster, Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
The surest bet on Oscar night, maybe even more so than Oppenheimer winning in Best Picture and Best Director, is Da’Vine Joy Randolph winning Best Supporting Actress. She’s easily my favorite in this category, though she has the most to work with in her movie compared to the other nominees, such as Emily Blunt and America Ferrera, both of whom don’t really have a lot to do in their respective films. Still, I do think it’s nice to see them get some Oscar recognition, though there are a few other performances I would’ve loved to see recognized here instead, including Rachel McAdams in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
My Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
My Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees (in alphabetical order):
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Holdovers
- Maestro
- May December
- Past Lives
This is a pretty good set of nominees, and I’d be happy to see almost any of them win. But if I had to pick one, it’d be May December, one of my favorite films of the year that was sadly only nominated in this category, though with the screenplay being the film’s strongest element, I’m glad the Academy at least recognized that. Anatomy of a Fall has been dominating this category, so I believe it’ll win the Oscar too, though I could also see this going to Past Lives or The Holdovers.
My Pick: May December
My Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees (in alphabetical order):
- American Fiction
- Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
I think this is the stronger screenplay category this year between original and adapted, though I would’ve loved to see Killers of the Flower Moon among the nominees. American Fiction has been picking up a lot of screenplay awards, so it seems likely it will triumph on Oscar night too. But if you had asked me shortly after Oscar nominations were announced who I think would win, I would’ve picked Barbie following the outcry over omissions in the Best Director and Best Actress categories. With that said, I do see the possibility of Barbie winning here, or even Oppenheimer getting caught up in what’s surely to be quite a sweep.
My Pick: Oppenheimer
My Prediction: American Fiction
And now the rest of my predictions…
- Best Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Best International Feature Film: The Zone of Interest
- Best Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
- Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer
- Best Film Editing: Oppenheimer
- Best Production Design: Poor Things
- Best Costume Design: Barbie
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro
- Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
- Best Sound: Oppenheimer
- Best Original Score: Oppenheimer
- Best Original Song: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
- Best Animated Short Film: War Is Over!
- Best Live Action Short Film: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
- Best Documentary Short Subject: The Last Repair Shop
A few thoughts on some of the categories:
- I managed to see all the nominees in the Best Animated Feature Film category and enjoyed them overall. I had thought for a long time that the Oscar would go to The Boy and the Heron (my personal pick), and while that’s still a strong possibility, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has had a higher profile for the most part during awards season.
- The toughest categories for me to settle on predicting this year are Best Production Design and Best Costume Design, which both seem to be tight races between Barbie and Poor Things. I could see both going to Barbie, or both going to Poor Things, or even the reverse of what I’m ultimately predicting. Crossing my fingers I’m right, though if I were voting I probably would’ve gone to the reverse of my predictions, giving production design to Barbie and costumes to Poor Things.
- I didn’t get around to watching any of the other nominees in the Best Live Action Short Film category aside from The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, but I really hope Wes Anderson finally wins an Oscar (especially since his 2023 feature-length film Asteroid City didn’t get any awards love).
Along with the aforementioned “I’m Just Ken” performance, I’m also looking forward to seeing how the acting categories will be presented, with five previous winners honoring each of the nominees. And since the show is starting an hour earlier than usual, hopefully, that means there will be more time to indulge in these moments during the ceremony. All in all, it’s set to be an exciting night, even if it’s one movie taking a majority of the evening’s awards (at least it’s a movie I love too!). So now the question is, how many Oscars will Oppenheimer win out of its 13 nominations? I’m predicting 8, which would put it in great company with the likes of Amadeus and On the Waterfront.
