Happy Oscar Sunday! It’s been a pretty exciting awards season, with several movies I enjoyed last year getting some well-deserved recognition, so much so that there are quite a few races that aren’t as easy to predict as usual as we head into the Oscars. This year though I won’t be glued to my TV watching the ceremony, and instead will be celebrating the 95th Academy Awards at the Academy Museum! This watch party is basically the next best thing to attending the ceremony itself. Anyway, before I get red carpet ready, I wanted to squeeze in my annual Oscars tradition on my blog, wherein I’ll make predictions on which films will win the Academy Award in each category. And for the top eight categories (the four for acting, the two screenplay categories, Best Director, and of course, Best Picture), I’ll be including which of the nominees I’d pick for my own ballot.
Best Picture
First, my personal ranking of the nominees, from best to worst:
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- TÁR
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Elvis
- Women Talking
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Triangle of Sadness
Overall I think this is a pretty solid group of movies. I was lucky to see nearly half of the nominees at two different film festivals here in L.A. (The Fabelmans and Women Talking at AFI FEST, The Banshees of Inisherin and Triangle of Sadness at Beyond Fest). But the movie that stayed with me, and evidently the Academy, is Everything Everywhere All at Once, which hit theaters just about a year ago today. I’m happy a weird little film like this was not only remembered come Oscar time but seems to be fully embraced for what it is. As you’ll see for my personal picks in the other top categories, I like to try to spread the love where I can as it wasn’t the only movie I enjoyed this year, but if any film deserves to sweep the awards tonight I think it’s this one, and I’m hoping it has a victorious night.
My Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once
My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Nominees (in alphabetical order by movie):
- Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
- Todd Field, TÁR
- Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
It’s disappointing that after back-to-back years of having at least one woman nominated for Best Director, we’re back to an all-male lineup. But for the most part, this is a pretty good crop of nominees. I can’t imagine anyone else beating Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once, as they walked away with the DGA, but if it were up to me I’d give the Oscar to Todd Field for his precise directing work on TÁR. It would also be nice to see Steven Spielberg win for his semi-autobiographical film The Fabelmans, but I do look forward to seeing Daniels take the stage.
My Pick: Todd Field, TÁR
My Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Austin Butler, Elvis
- Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Fraser, The Whale
- Paul Mescal, Aftersun
- Bill Nighy, Living
And now we’re at the acting categories, three of which are very close between two to three nominees. For a while, this seemed to be a three-man race between Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, and Brendan Fraser, but going into tonight’s awards it seems to be between the former and the latter. While my personal pick would be Paul Mescal giving such a beautiful, subtle performance that I’m pleasantly surprised the Academy took notice of, I’m rooting for Butler to win the Oscar of the likely candidates, as his portrayal of Elvis Presley has become among one of my favorite biopic performances. But though I thought Fraser’s acting was just fine and not particularly award-worthy, I wouldn’t be completely upset if he ends up winning for his welcome comeback to Hollywood. As far as predictions go, I’m going to split the acting winners between SAG and BAFTA; in this case, I’m going with BAFTA’s Best Actor choice, as Elvis is a much more beloved movie among all the categories compared to The Whale.
My Pick: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
My Prediction: Austin Butler, Elvis
Best Actress
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Cate Blanchett, TÁR
- Ana de Armas, Blonde
- Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
- Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actress has been a bit of a nail-biter since awards season began, first with Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh both winning Golden Globes, then with the former winning most of the awards before the latter won a couple of noteworthy ones within the last couple of weeks around voting. Here I’m gonna go with SAG and predict Yeoh for the win, and I really hope the Academy agrees as I would absolutely love to see an Asian actress win for the very first time in this category. Blanchett does give an undeniable performance though, one that I love myself, so I’m mentally preparing for that result instead, but still keeping my fingers crossed for another woman of color finally winning Best Actress.
My Pick: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
My Prediction: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
- Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
- Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
The only acting category that has an apparent lock is Best Supporting Actor, and I’m thrilled it’s Ke Huy Quan, who gives not only my favorite performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once but also one of my favorites of the past year. And how could anyone not vote for him and his comeback narrative? I’m glad he was able to finally get back on movie screens, and I hope his Oscar win opens more doors for him. I guess I’ll say if there is a shock here, I could see BAFTA’s choice Barry Keoghan winning instead, but I really can’t imagine anyone else winning here.
My Pick: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
My Prediction: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):
- Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau, The Whale
- Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
From the most certain acting category to the most uncertain, it’s really anyone’s guess who will prevail here. It could be Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner Angela Bassett, BAFTA winner Kerry Condon, or SAG winner Jamie Lee Curtis. Or who knows, maybe even a surprise win for Stephanie Hsu, who gives a much more compelling performance than her co-star in this category. As I mentioned earlier, I’m splitting my predictions between the SAG and BAFTA winners, so here I’m going with Condon, who may be the only solid chance to keep The Banshees of Inisherin from going home empty-handed. Fortunately, she gave not only my favorite performance in this category but also in her movie itself, so I’d be delighted by this win. If it’s not her and the Academy decides to award a veteran actress, I do hope it goes to Bassett as she’s been long overdue.
My Pick: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
My Prediction: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees (in alphabetical order):
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- TÁR
- Triangle of Sadness
Best Original Screenplay is an exact match to Best Director, with Tony Kushner nominated alongside the filmmakers for his latest collaboration with Steven Spielberg on The Fabelmans. My personal choice here is really just me wanting Kushner to finally win an Oscar more than for the screenplay itself, but I do think it really is something special, and would want one of my favorite films of the year to win somewhere. But in reality, it looks as though the movie will be Oscar-less, so my bet is on Everything Everywhere All at Once to sweep up another well-deserved award here, though I could also see this going to Martin McDonagh for his work on The Banshees of Inisherin.
My Pick: The Fabelmans
My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees (in alphabetical order):
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Living
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Women Talking
This feels like a tight race between All Quiet on the Western Front and Women Talking, with the former getting lots of love across the board and the latter only getting one other nomination in the form of Best Picture. But for that reason, I’m going with Sarah Polley for the win on her adaptation, as the German World War I film will surely win in some other categories.
My Pick: Women Talking
My Prediction: Women Talking
And now the rest of my predictions…
- Best Animated Feature Film: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Best International Feature Film: All Quiet on the Western Front
- Best Documentary Feature: Navalny
- Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
- Best Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Best Production Design: Babylon
- Best Costume Design: Elvis
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis
- Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
- Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
- Best Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
- Best Original Song: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
- Best Animated Short Film: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
- Best Live Action Short Film: Le pupille
- Best Documentary Short Subject: The Elephant Whisperers
Normally I share a few thoughts on some of the other categories here, but since I’m short on time I will just quickly mention the only other category I’m really invested in outside of the top categories, and that’s Best Original Score. I’m really hoping Justin Hurwitz wins his third Academy Award for his brilliant work on Babylon, which has truly become one of my all-time favorite film scores. But the film itself was not well-liked in general, and it’s the only one in this category that’s not a Best Picture contender, which makes it less likely that voters tuned into it. So I’m begrudgingly predicting All Quiet on the Western Front, but hoping that if Babylon doesn’t win as it deserves to that Everything Everywhere All at Once gets it instead. Anyway, it’s bound to be an exciting night either way, and I’m keeping my fingers crossed for some of my picks to prevail over my predictions!
