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The 91st Academy Awards: My Picks and Predictions

Keisha

Happy Oscar Sunday! It’s been quite an awards season, with different movies taking the top prizes at the precursors, making it all more uncertain as to which movies will end up winning at Hollywood’s biggest show. As is my annual tradition on this blog, I’ll make predictions on which films will win the Academy Award in each category. And for the top eight categories (the four for acting, the two screenplay categories, Best Director, and of course, Best Picture), I’ll be including which of the nominees I’d pick for my own ballot. So without further ado, my thoughts on this year’s Oscar nominees…

Best Picture

First, my personal ranking of the nominees, from best to worst:

  1. Roma
  2. A Star Is Born
  3. BlacKkKlansman
  4. Black Panther
  5. The Favourite
  6. Green Book
  7. Bohemian Rhapsody
  8. Vice

This year’s crop of Best Picture nominees can be split into two groups: five movies that I either loved or admired, and three that I either didn’t care for or just didn’t like. So my list here is a bit of a rough ranking, and I even had some trouble deciding on one movie I’d want to see win. I saw both A Star Is Born and Black Panther in theaters twice, so obviously I enjoyed those movies quite a bit and would love to see either win (the latter would particularly be a really great win to see). But I think for a personal pick, I’m going to go with Roma. On top of being a beautifully made film, it’d be great to see a foreign language film finally awarded Best Picture.

As far as the movie that will actually be named Best Picture, I ultimately think it will also go to Roma thanks to the Academy’s preferential ballot. I don’t think it’s everyone’s favorite of the year overall, as previous awards have been split between the likes of Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and The Favourite. But it’s a movie that seems to be much admired by the Academy, as evident from its ten nominations. It’s a tough call though, as I can see almost any one of these movies taking the big win. If Roma doesn’t win, Green Book would be my next best guess, followed by Black Panther.

My Pick: Roma
My Prediction: Roma

Best Director

Nominees (in alphabetical order by movie):

For the most part, this is a really solid list of nominees, and I was especially pleased to see Pawel Pawlikowski’s name among them, as Cold War was one of my favorites of 2018. While I mentioned how well-made I thought Roma was, I would really love to see the Oscar go to Spike Lee, who finally earned his first nomination for Best Director for BlacKkKlansman. I think for that reason, he could be the spoiler win in this category. But since Alfonso Cuarón has won virtually every Best Director award leading up to the Academy Awards, the Oscar is basically his to lose.

My Pick: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
My Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Best Actor

Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):

For me, there’s no contest on who should win the Oscar for Best Actor, and that’s Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born. In my opinion, he gives the most complex performance, and it’s by far his best work to date. But the Academy really loves seeing actors play real people (Cooper is the only one playing a fictional character in this category!), so the race seems to be more between Christian Bale as Dick Cheney and Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury. While Bale’s transformation into the former VP has been a big talker, most people are likely going to lean toward Malek as the globally-beloved rock star, despite the lip-syncing.

My Pick: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
My Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actress

Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):

Unlike its male counterpart, the Best Actress category is very strong, as it usually seems to be in my opinion. I really liked all the nominated performances, but for me, and likely voters as well, it’s between Glenn Close and Olivia Colman. Overall I think Colman gives the better performance, but I really want to see Close finally win an Oscar, and her work in The Wife is one of her best. And with that in mind, I think the Academy will finally award her after seven nominations.

My Pick: Glenn Close, The Wife
My Prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):

This is another case where there’s a clear winner for me, and that’s Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? who gives such a dynamic performance, full of both comedic and heart-rendering moments. I also really liked Sam Elliot’s work in A Star Is Born, who did such an effective job in a limited amount of screentime. Given how much the Academy loves Green Book though, and considering all the previous awards it’s won in this category, it seems to be Mahershala Ali’s to lose.

My Pick: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
My Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees (in alphabetical order by last name):

Of the four acting categories, Best Supporting Actress seems to be the most unpredictable, as there have been a wider variety of nominees and winners in this category at previous awards. And all these performances are great, though Emma Stone and arguably Rachel Weisz are much more leading than supporting in The Favourite. I can see the winner being either Weisz or Regina King, or even Marina de Tavira, given her surprise Oscar nomination and overall support for Roma. But I think there’s been a lot of passion to give the Oscar to King, who’s also my personal favorite here.

My Pick: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
My Prediction: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees (in alphabetical order):

The race in the Best Original Screenplay category seems to be between The Favourite and Green Book so I can see either of them winning the Oscar. But I have a hard time imagining anyone passing up The Favourite for the win, as I think it had the most compelling story, paired with some memorable dialogue. Admittedly, I’m not too invested in this category because Eighth Grade, one of my favorites of 2018, missed out here and would’ve been the deserving winner. Since that’s obviously not happening, I think The Favourite deserves the win here.

My Pick: The Favourite
My Prediction: The Favourite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees (in alphabetical order):

I’m much more invested in the Adapted Screenplay than the other category, as I feel it’s a strong list of nominees. For my personal pick, I was between If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? but I ultimately went with the latter because of the way it was able to make a couple of unlikable characters so enjoyable to watch on screen. I think this is the place though where voters will give an Oscar to Spike Lee for co-writing the screenplay for BlacKkKlansman since he’s not likely to win Best Director.

My Pick: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
My Prediction: BlacKkKlansman

And now the rest of my predictions…

A few thoughts on some of the categories:

As always, while I love to be right, I do hope there are some good, unpredictable wins at the ceremony (Best Actor Oscar for Bradley Cooper please!). Thankfully, we’ll also get to see speeches from all the winners in each category, which I do enjoy even if the show ends up going longer. Aside from that, I’m definitely looking forward to seeing Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper perform “Shallow” on the show and am interested to see what else will be featured in this ceremony without a host. I just hope the 91st Academy Awards ends up being a good, solid show.

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